260
FXUS63 KABR 240749
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
149 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will shift northwesterly through the morning, with gusts of
30 to 40 mph. The combination of gusty winds and dry fuels lead to
High to Very High Grassland Fire Danger over portions of central
South Dakota today.

- A disorganized system will bring the potential for light snow on
Wednesday. Snow accumulations of an inch or less is possible within
a broad area of light snow. However, locally higher snowfall amounts
of 2 to 3+ inches could be possible within any narrow band or bands
of snow that may develop. Low confidence remains on where the
band(s) will track along with exact snow amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

As of 1AM the center of low was hovering over the ND/Canada border
with the warm front extending southward through the central part of
the CWA. Temps ahead of front range in the upper teens to the lower
20s (mid/upper 20s along eastern slopes of Coteau per downsloping
winds) with parts of central SD in the upper 20s around 30. This
warm front will continue to track eastward over the rest of the CWA
with temperatures continuing to warm up behind it through early this
morning. We have seen downslope wind gusts mainly between 25-35 mph
with locally higher gusts of 50 mph at Peever, 46 mph at Altamont,
and 43 mph at Summit between 10pm and a little after midnight. This
threat will continue for the next few hours before winds shift more
westerly.

By 12Z models indicate this low will continue to track east and over
northwestern MN/Canada with its cold front tracking northwest to
southeast over the CWA through the morning with the fropa exiting
our far southeastern CWA by the afternoon as winds over the CWA will
be out of the northwest. On the backside of the low/upper lows, HREF
indicates winds do increase within a jet in this northwest flow,
with 850mb winds between 40-50kts and 700mb winds 50-65kts. Highest
winds will be through this morning along and behind the cold front
and when the strongest CAA will push through with this front. As
colder air moves in from the north both at the surface and aloft,
temps will are expected to fall from north to south through the day
but really only over northeastern SD/western MN as warmer air holds
steady over south central SD. So at the surface, winds will increase
through the morning with gusts of 30 to 40mph, with locally higher
gusts possible. The combination of gusty winds and dry fuels leads
to High to Very High fire danger over portions of central SD. Lowest
RH only drops to around 40% over south central SD so this will be
more because of a wind issue. Radar indicates most of the precip is
staying closer to the center of the low up in ND/MN. However, a
couple of CAMs show the potential for far northeastern SD/western MN
along the ND border could be clipped by some light snow/flurries or
freezing rain between ~11-15Z. EC/NBM shows this possible ZR mixed
in, however no ice accum is expected. So kept with the trend of
slight pops of 15-25% for this timeframe. This may need to be
adjusted accordingly. With this quick moving system, winds aloft and
to the surface become weaker later on this afternoon as this low
will continue to track east and a high pressure system settles to
our northwest over Canada.

Our attention then turns to Wednesday as confidence still remains
low on this disorganized system that will bring the potential for
one or several bands of light snow within a broader area of light
snow. By 12Z Wednesday, the high is forecast to be over eastern
ND/western MN with a surface low over WY/SD/NE border where it will
track across Nebraska (while the high tracks into MN). Light
snow/banded snow is expected on the northern gradient of this low,
sandwiched between the high within a narrow gradient. Several models
do indicate northwest to southeast oriented WAA/FGEN aloft, however,
it is only for an hour or two and models differ quite a bit on
intensity of this FGEN and exact location. All of the models agree
on this northwest to southeast track of light snow either as one
solid band or several smaller bands, but where they will actually
track is uncertain at this moment, due to model variability. It
seems there is a "broad" consensus of the broader swath of snow
entering north central SD as early as 10-12Z and traveling southeast
through southeastern SD into Iowa through Wed evening. However, some
models like RAP/HRRR have this swath traveling more south with RRFS
being more north. Luckily most of the models keep totals light of a
few tenths up to 2" but models like the RRFS/NAM do show more of a
banded setup with amounts potentially higher, up to 3-5". So to sum
it all up a general inch or less possible within this broader area
of snow with the potential for narrow bands of heavier snowfall
within it, especially if coinciding with stronger forcing aloft. It
is one of these scenarios that snow totals outside any potential
stronger band will drop off dramatically to even nothing at all.

So due to this uncertainty NBM has a broad brush 40-60% pops with
the highest chances from north central southeastward through east
central SD. Snow ratios will be lower then 10:1 over south central
SD where anyways, snow or rain/snow will transition to rain as temps
are forecast in the upper 30s to the mid 40s. SLR`s will increase
the further north and northeast in the CWA with average around 14-
15:1 (closer to 18:1 far northeastern SD/western MN). NBM and grand
ensemble HREF does smooth out the snow totals of 1-2" with even 95th
percentile staying under 3". Luckily winds will not be overly strong
with gusts of 15-25mph, while drifting snow is still possible in
areas of falling snow, whiteout conditions are not anticipated.

Behind this system, dry weather is forecast for the end of the week
with a low passing west to east across Canada/Northern Conus with
the possibility of light snow chances by the weekend per wave aloft.
Temps will be in the 40s and 50s for the end of the week, cooling
down to the teens to 30s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for KABR/KMBG/KPIR. There may be some MVFR CIGS
moving into KATY towards the end of the TAF period with a frontal
passage, though confidence is low. Otherwise strong winds off the
surface will result in wind shear overnight into Tuesday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...Vipond